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Debt and deleveraging: Uneven progress on the path to growth

From the McKinsey Global Institute:

Safely reducing debt and clearing the way for economic growth in the aftermath of the global credit bubble will take many years and involve difficult choices, as MGI’s 2010 report showed.

MGI's Charles Roxburgh and Susan Lund assess the progress in deleveraging by the major mature economies today and the difficult trade-offs involved in stabilizing financial systems, reducing debt, and restarting growth in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

Two years later, major economies have only just begun deleveraging. In only three of the largest mature economies—the United States, Australia, and South Korea—has the ratio of total debt relative to GDP fallen. The private sector leads in debt reduction, and government debt has continued to rise, due to recession. However, history shows that, under the right conditions, private-sector deleveraging leads to renewed economic growth and then public-sector debt reduction.

These are the principal findings of MGI’s latest perspective on deleveraging, which revisits the world’s ten largest mature economies to see where they stand in the process of reducing debt ratios (United States, Japan, Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy, Canada, Spain, Australia, and South Korea). It focuses in particular on the experience and outlook for the United States, United Kingdom, and Spain—three countries covering a range of deleveraging and growth challenges. It also examines the relevant lessons from history about how governments can support economic recovery amid deleveraging, and identifies six key markers business leaders can look for to monitor progress of specific countries.

To download the PDF version of the executive click here and for the full report click here.

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