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Economic Forecasting

Does the federal reserve staff still beat private forecasters? (ECB)
Thu, 2014-03-27 15:28

A working paper by Makram El-Shagi, Sebastian Giesen, Alexander Jung (February 2014)

A framework for applied macroeconomic forecasting (part 1) by Lars Christensen
Thu, 2014-03-27 16:13
The fact is that the challenges that real-world macroeconomic forecasters are facing are of a completely different type than the theoretical models that we learn in university.

In Praise of Foxy Scholars by Dani Rodrik
Thu, 2014-03-27 16:39
In a world of diverse and changing circumstances, economists and other social scientists can do real harm by applying the wrong model. Unfortunately, they get virtually no training in how to choose among the alternatives.

What place do applied middlebrow models have? by Simon Wren-Lewis
Thu, 2014-03-27 16:55
Middlebrow versus Highbrow economic modelling.

Strategic Coordination in Forecasting. An Experimental Study (University of Goettingen-Ostfalia University of Applied Sciences)
Thu, 2014-03-27 17:34
A working paper by Kilian Bizer, Lukas Meub, Till Proeger,Markus Spiwoks (March 2014)

Should Policymakers or Macro Models Be Taken to the Woodshed? by John Taylor
Thu, 2014-03-27 18:10
There’s a good debate going on about the usefulness of macro models, and in particular whether the so-called New Keynesian models let us down or even helped bring on the financial crisis and the Great Recession.

What is wrong (and right) in economics? by Dani Rodrik
Thu, 2014-03-27 18:22
A typical complaint against mainstream economics is that it is too limiting in the conclusions it leads to. Mainstream economists are often seen as ideologues of the market economy. I would concede that most of my economist colleagues tend to view markets as inherently desirable and government intervention as inherently unwelcome. But in reality what we teach our students in the classroom – the advanced students if not the undergraduates –and what we talk about in the seminar room are typically much more about the myriad ways in which markets fail.

Speaking as an Old New Keynesian … by Simon Wren-Lewis
Thu, 2014-03-27 18:29
"Of course there are a huge number of policy debates in macroeconomics, and you can attach labels to those if you like. Should we use fiscal stimulus at the zero lower bound, for example. Was austerity a good idea? However, anti-Keynesians aside, I don’t think these debates reveal large fault lines in economic thinking"

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