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Blogs - Oct 2014

How Much has the IMF Changed in Response to the Global Crisis? by Matías Vernengo
Mon, 2014-10-06 22:22

Has Olivier Blanchard managed to change the IMF?

IMF/World Bank Meetings: In Search of a Consensus by Robert Kahn
Mon, 2014-10-06 23:09

What to expect from the upcoming IMF/World Bank meetings

The crises of 2014
Thu, 2014-10-09 14:34

The sanction against Russia, Ebola, the Hong Kong demonstrations, the Middle east turmoil through the prism of economists.

Heat Wave: Rising Financial Risks in the United States by Serkan Arslanalp, David Jones, and Sanjay Hazarika
Mon, 2014-10-13 22:03

Six years after the start of the global financial crisis, low interest rates and other central bank policies in the United States remain critical to encourage economic risk-taking—increased consumption by households, and greater willingness to invest and hire by businesses. However, this prolonged monetary ease also may have encouraged excessive financial risk-taking. Our analysis in the latest Global Financial Stability Report suggests that although economic benefits are becoming more evident, U.S. officials should remain alert to excessive financial risk-taking, particularly in lower-rated corporate debt markets.

What Can We Learn from Prior Periods of Low Volatility? by Fernando Duarte, Juan Navarro-Staicos, and Carlo Rosa
Mon, 2014-10-13 22:10

Volatility, a measure of how much financial markets are fluctuating, has been near its record low in many asset classes. Over the last few decades, there have been only two other periods of similarly low volatility: in May 2013, and prior to the financial crisis in 2007. Is there anything we can learn from the recent period of low volatility versus what occurred slightly more than one year ago and seven years ago? Probably; the current volatility environment appears quite similar to the one in May 2013, but it’s substantially different from what happened prior to the financial crisis.

Ahistoricism in Acemoglu-Robinson by Branko Milanovic
Mon, 2014-10-13 23:27

Is socialism a necessary pre-condition to capitalism?

Lower oil prices by James Hamilton
Wed, 2014-10-15 22:48

Is the recent steep decrease in the price of oil demand or supply driven?

Volatility and market pricing by Guy Debelle
Wed, 2014-10-15 22:56

This is a speech that Mr Guy Debelle, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) of the Reserve Bank of Australia gave on October 14, 2014.

A Mirage, Not An Oasis: Easy Money and Financial Markets by Fabio Cortes, David Jones and Evan Papageorgiou
Wed, 2014-10-15 23:15

An unexpected adjustment in bond markets could reduce the value of glabl bond portfolios drastically due to the liquidity mismatch between mutual fund investors and corporates.

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