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Blogs - Mar 2015

Herd Behavior in Financial Markets by Marco Cipriani and Antonio Guarino
Mon, 2015-03-09 23:41

In this post, we describe a novel approach to measuring herding in financial markets, which we employed in a recently published paper. We develop a theoretical model of herd behavior that, in contrast to the existing theoretical literature, can be brought to the data, and we show how to estimate it using financial markets transaction data.

The Stock-Bond Disconnect by Kenneth Rogoff
Tue, 2015-03-10 00:05

How should one understand the disconnect between the new highs reached by global equity indices and the new depths plumbed by real interest rates worldwide? Several competing explanations attempt to reconcile these trends, and getting it right is essential for calibrating monetary and fiscal policy appropriately.

A deal worth getting right by Larry Summers
Tue, 2015-03-10 00:53

"So the TPP should be judged not against the hypothetical past in which U.S. workers did not face foreign competition but in the context of a world in which trade integration in Asia is already happening — with or without the United States. Its merit will depend on U.S. negotiating priorities."

Global Capital Heads for the Frontier by Dani Rodrik
Wed, 2015-03-11 06:15

So-called “frontier market economies" are the latest fad in investment circles. Whether surging capital inflows in these countries – including Bangladesh, Vietnam, Honduras, Bolivia, Kenya, and Ghana – should be cheered or lamented is a question that has become a kind of Rorschach test for economic analysts and policymakers.

How Scary Is the Bond Market? by Robert J. Shiller
Tue, 2015-03-17 22:15

With the bond market appearing ripe for a dramatic correction, many are wondering whether a crash could drag down markets for other long-term assets, such as housing and equities. But when an event has never occurred, it cannot be predicted with any semblance of confidence.

The Keynesian Illusion by David K. Levine
Tue, 2015-03-24 06:33

Decontrsucting Keynesianism.

Time for a Rant!: Why Oh Why Cannot We Have Better Economists? by Bradford DeLong
Tue, 2015-03-24 06:44

A response to D. K. Levine's article on the "Keynesian Illusion"

Levine on the Keynesian Illusion by John Cochrane
Tue, 2015-03-24 06:48

In support of the "Keynesian Illusion"

No One Expects the Spanish Inquisition: More on D.K. Levine and J.M Keynes by Stephen Williamson
Tue, 2015-03-24 06:54

The monetarist camp against D.K. Levine

Is the Walrasian Auctioneer microfounded? by Simon Wren-Lewis
Tue, 2015-03-24 07:02

I have never understood why New Keynesians can be so defensive about their modelling of price setting. Their response every time should be ‘well at least it’s better than assuming an intertemporal auctioneer’."

David Levine's accidental Monetarism by Nick Rowe
Tue, 2015-03-24 07:08

"David Levine's model/story is a very Monetarist model/story. (OK, a Keynesian model/story too, if by "Keynesian" we mean theoretically correct Keynesians who recognise the central importance of the medium of exchange.) But he misses seeing the point of his own model/story because he misses seeing that phones are money in his story."

A politician’s age and policy by Alberto Alesina, Traviss Cassidy, Ugo Troiano
Wed, 2015-03-25 08:09

Different characteristics of a politician could affect policy. Whereas existing studies analyse gender and education, this column discusses the effect of a politician’s age on governance and re-election. Younger mayors are more likely to strategically increase expenditures and attract more transfers from the higher levels of government right before the election. These fiscal cycles are positively correlated with re-election and, hence, potentially explain why younger mayors are more likely to be re-elected. 

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