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Blogs - Feb 2016

Migration’s economic positives and negatives by Branko Milanovic
Mon, 2016-02-01 21:53

Some unpleasant Brexit econometrics by Nauro F. Campos, Fabrizio Coricelli
Tue, 2016-02-02 22:30

Whatever the result of Britain’s upcoming in-or-out referendum on EU membership, its relationship with the EU will change substantially. To assess these changes, it is important to understand how Britain has benefited from EU membership. This column argues that EU membership has brought benefits through three key mechanisms – trade, foreign investment, and finance. The current focus on UK exports to and imports from the EU may severely underestimate the true potential costs to Britain of Brexit

Brexit and the City by Karell Lannoo
Tue, 2016-02-02 22:48

The Causes and Consequences of Brexit by Ana Palacio
Tue, 2016-02-02 23:28

It seems increasingly likely that the upcoming European Council meeting will produce a deal on the conditions of the UK’s EU membership – a deal that will be put before British voters in a referendum, possibly this summer. The referendum is the main threat, because voters rarely focus on the issue at hand when making such decisions.

One market, two monies: the European Union and the United Kingdom by André Sapir and Guntram B. Wolff
Wed, 2016-02-03 00:17

Access to the single market is one of the core benefits of the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union. A vote to leave the EU would trigger difficult negotiations on continued access to that market. However, the single market is not static. One of the drivers of change is the necessary reforms to strengthen the euro. Such reforms would not only affect the euro’s fiscal and political governance. They would also have an impact on the single market, in particular in the areas of banking, capital markets and labour markets. This is bound to affect the UK, whether it remains in the EU or not.

Why Access to In-Work Benefits Is a Hard Nut to Crack in the UK's EU Negotiations by Barbara Janta and Emma Harte
Wed, 2016-02-03 01:28

Are US Stocks Overvalued? by Olivier Blanchard and Joseph E. Gagnon
Mon, 2016-02-08 20:56

Expecting the unexpected: Why the oil price keeps surprising us by Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian
Tue, 2016-02-09 01:42

Expectations play a key role in assessing how oil price fluctuations affect the economy. This column explores how consumers, policymakers, financial market participants, and economists form expectations about the price of crude oil, the differences in these expectations, and why future realisations of the price of oil so often differ substantially from these expectations. Differences in oil price expectations are shown to matter for quantifying oil price shocks and their transmission.  

The Coming Wave of Oil Refugees by Michael Meyer
Wed, 2016-02-17 01:29

The last great oil bust occurred in the 1980s – and it changed the world, leading to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Today's plunging oil prices are similarly likely to redraw the geopolitical map, as petroleum-rich governments in Africa and the Middle East confront social unrest and Europe faces a new wave of migrants.

Why the European Union will benefit from Brexit by Paul De Grauwe
Tue, 2016-02-23 01:24

The Trade Numbers Game by Dani Rodrik
Tue, 2016-02-23 07:39

The Trans-Pacific Partnership – a mega trade deal covering 12 countries that together account for more than one-third of global GDP and a quarter of world exports – is the latest battleground in the decades-long confrontation between proponents and opponents of trade agreements. Unfortunately, neither side is offering good evidence.

Whatever happened to the General Theory by Simon Wren-Lewis
Thu, 2016-02-25 01:59

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